The Premier League returns following a two-week international break, and it’s time to assess where things stand at both ends of the table. Liverpool is in a commanding position at the top, while the relegation fight looks grim for the newly promoted clubs. With the final stretch of the season underway, it seems a matter of time before both the champions and the relegated sides are confirmed.
Liverpool closing in on the title
Arne Slot’s Liverpool have built a strong lead in the title race, sitting 12 points clear of Arsenal, who are their closest challengers. With a total of 70 points, Liverpool need just 16 more from the 27 still available to secure their second Premier League trophy and match Manchester United’s record of 20 English league titles.
While 16 points would guarantee the title, the Reds could need only 15 if their goal difference advantage over Arsenal – currently +42 to +29 – remains significant. In fact, four more victories might be sufficient if one of them comes against Arsenal.
The earliest Liverpool could mathematically confirm their triumph is on April 13, when they host West Ham at Anfield. For that to happen, Arsenal would have to lose their next two fixtures against Fulham and Everton while Liverpool win their upcoming matches against Everton and Fulham. In that case, Arsenal would trail by 18 points with 21 left to play for.
Should Arsenal then drop points to Brentford on April 12, they would be left with just 18 possible points, meaning Liverpool would only need a draw against West Ham to seal the title. Statistical predictions from Opta put Liverpool’s chances of winning the league at 99.2%, with Arsenal given just a 0.8% shot at overtaking them.
The relegation struggle intensifies
At the bottom of the table, the three promoted clubs – Southampton, Ipswich, and Leicester – remain in deep trouble. All three sides are significantly adrift of safety, and the prospect of an immediate return to the Championship looms large.
Southampton, in particular, faces an almost impossible task to survive, sitting 17 points from safety with just 27 left to play for. Instead, their focus may shift to avoiding the unwanted record of being the worst Premier League team in history. Derby County’s 2007-08 squad holds the lowest points total ever with 11, while Sunderland managed just 15 in 2005-06. Southampton needs at least three points from their final nine matches to avoid surpassing Derby’s record.
In addition, Southampton is in danger of becoming the earliest team in Premier League history to be relegated. Both Derby and Huddersfield were mathematically relegated after 32 matches. If Southampton lose their next two games while Wolves win theirs, the Saints will be 23 points behind with only 21 left to play for, confirming their relegation earlier than any other club in the competition’s history.
Wolves, currently the only team outside the bottom three that could realistically be drawn into the battle, significantly boosted their survival hopes with a crucial 2-1 win over Southampton. That victory extended their gap from the drop zone to nine points, meaning they could mathematically secure their Premier League status in the next few weeks. Should they collect 10 points from their next four fixtures while Leicester and Ipswich lose their next three, Wolves would be safe.
Champions League qualification race heats up
The fight for a top-four finish remains intense. Liverpool, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, and Chelsea currently occupy the Champions League spots, but competition is fierce for the final guaranteed place. Only five points separate fourth-placed Chelsea from Bournemouth in 10th, keeping several clubs in contention.
The situation is further complicated by UEFA’s coefficient rankings, which are likely to grant England an additional Champions League spot. If confirmed, this would mean that the team finishing fifth would also qualify for Europe’s premier competition. At present, that position belongs to Manchester City, but with just four points separating them from 10th-placed Bournemouth, multiple teams remain in the hunt for a coveted Champions League berth.
