With Liverpool and Arsenal already booked into next season’s Champions League, five Premier League clubs are now competing for the remaining three slots. Manchester City, sitting on 68 points after a win over Bournemouth, are in prime position and likely need only a point away at Fulham to confirm qualification due to their goal difference.
Just below, Newcastle, Chelsea, and Aston Villa are level on 66 points. Nottingham Forest, only one point behind them, still have an outside chance at sneaking in with a win over Chelsea and a slip from others. The final day will determine how this fierce contest plays out.
Newcastle’s route is clear: beat Everton at home, and a Champions League spot is theirs. Chelsea face a tougher challenge away at Forest, who remain in the fight after a recent win over West Ham. A Forest win combined with dropped points from those above could lift them into the top five.
Villa need a victory at Old Trafford against Manchester United, plus help from elsewhere to break into the top five. The winners of the Europa League final between Manchester United and Tottenham will also join Europe’s elite next season, but that outcome won’t influence the domestic battle for places.
How the numbers stack up
The odds favor City, with data firm Opta calculating a 96.83% chance of them qualifying. Newcastle are next with 81.73%, while Chelsea’s chances stand at 57.81%. Villa’s hopes are slimmer at 43.97%, and Forest have a 19.66% shot at making it.
City, who have won their last 14 league games at Craven Cottage, can lock in qualification with a win at Fulham. A draw should also suffice due to their superior goal tally. Pep Guardiola remains focused, warning that Fulham will be a difficult hurdle.
Tuesday’s result at Bournemouth ended any European dreams for the Cherries, who sit in 11th and can’t reach the top eight.
The wider European picture
Crystal Palace will play in the Europa League after defeating City in the FA Cup final. The sixth-place team in the league will also join them. Newcastle, winners of this season’s Carabao Cup, are guaranteed a spot in at least the Conference League next year.
If Newcastle finish among the top six, the Conference League place passes down to the seventh-placed club. The current battle for these positions includes Brighton, Brentford, and Fulham, who are all close on points.
There’s still a scenario where the team in eighth sneaks into Europe. Should Chelsea end up seventh and win the Conference League final against Real Betis, they would move into the Europa League, potentially opening a path for eighth place to enter the Conference League.
Brighton, now eighth after beating Liverpool, are three points ahead of Brentford and four above Fulham. Chelsea’s final league position and their result in the Conference League final will be crucial to how many teams England sends into continental competitions – and to which ones.
