Chelsea climbed back into the Premier League’s top four with a narrow but crucial victory over Tottenham Hotspur on Thursday. Enzo Fernandez struck the only goal at Stamford Bridge, securing three points for the Blues in a match they largely controlled.
This result saw Chelsea move above Manchester City into fourth place, strengthening their ambitions for a return to Champions League football next season. With a top-five finish now likely to be enough to reach Europe’s top competition, the battle for spots is becoming increasingly intense.
Manchester City, Aston Villa, and Newcastle United all picked up wins on Wednesday, while Brighton and Bournemouth lost valuable ground with home defeats that may prove decisive. Nottingham Forest also boosted their own hopes with a 1-0 win over Manchester United earlier in the week.
Currently, the Premier League table is extremely tight, with just eight points separating fourth-placed Chelsea from Bournemouth in tenth. According to Opta, Forest now has a 79% likelihood of finishing in the top four and a 92.3% chance of landing in the top five. Meanwhile, City has a 54.3% probability of remaining inside the top four despite missing out on the title. Chelsea’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League are rated at 28.3%, with Newcastle sitting just below them and holding a 32.2% chance.
The unlikely route to European football for 11th place
Newcastle’s Carabao Cup victory has guaranteed them a Conference League play-off place. If the Magpies secure a higher European spot – such as the Europa League or Champions League – this spot will pass to the next eligible Premier League side.
This scenario opens up the possibility of European qualification extending as low as 11th in the table. Though improbable, it remains mathematically possible. Here is one path that could see the 11th-placed club qualify for Europe:
Liverpool, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, and Manchester City finish in the top four, claiming Champions League qualification. Newcastle ends the season in fifth, taking the extra Champions League spot allocated to English clubs.
Brighton finishes sixth and earns a place in the Europa League, with Bournemouth taking seventh and inheriting the Conference League place due to Newcastle’s dual qualification. Chelsea, finishing eighth, wins this season’s Conference League and qualifies for the Europa League.
Aston Villa could also make it into the Champions League by winning this season’s edition of the tournament. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace could reach the Europa League by lifting the FA Cup. That would leave a potential opening for Manchester United or Tottenham, should either finish 11th and claim the Europa League title, to enter the Champions League.
How coefficient rankings unlock extra Champions League spots
UEFA uses a coefficient system to decide which leagues receive additional spots in European competitions. These rankings are calculated based on the performance of clubs in the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League.
Teams earn two points for a win and one for a draw. These points are added together and divided by the number of participating clubs from that country. For instance, if English clubs earn a total of 100 points and seven teams are involved, the league’s coefficient would be 14.28.
Extra points are awarded to clubs that progress in the Champions League, which gives an edge to countries with more representatives in the competition, such as Germany and Italy. The two highest-ranked countries in UEFA’s coefficient table are granted an additional Champions League spot for the next season.
For 2024–25, those places were awarded to Bologna and Borussia Dortmund, who both finished fifth in their respective leagues – Serie A and the Bundesliga.
