Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have taken major steps toward securing spots in the Europa League final, following convincing first-leg victories in their respective semi-final matches.
United triumphed 3-0 away against Athletic Bilbao, the club that will also host the final on 21 May. Tottenham earned a 3-1 home win over Norwegian side Bodo/Glimt in London.
Based on figures from data analysts Opta, United have a 97% probability of progressing, while Spurs are given a 91% likelihood, translating to an 88% chance of both advancing. That would mark only the sixth time two English clubs have contested a final in a major UEFA tournament, with Tottenham involved in half of those occasions.
Their meeting in the final would also guarantee England a sixth representative in the next Champions League campaign.
United and Spurs buck domestic trends
Despite their European dominance, neither Manchester United nor Tottenham is enjoying a strong domestic season. United currently sits 14th in the Premier League, and Spurs 16th – both far from European qualification via the league table.
Historically, no team finishing below 12th in their home league has lifted the Europa League since it was renamed in 2009. The only sides to reach or win the final from 12th place were Fulham in 2010 and Sevilla in 2023.
The introduction of a revamped group-stage format in European competitions this season has changed the dynamics, removing the previous mechanism that allowed Champions League third-placed teams to drop into the Europa League.
Should United face Tottenham in the final, the victor would become the lowest-placed team in the competition’s recent history to win it – a rare feat.
Premier League’s reach in Europe grows
The current trajectory could lead to six Premier League clubs in the Champions League next season. This scenario is made possible because the Europa League winners automatically qualify, independent of their league finish.
Spurs and United, significantly trailing fifth place in the standings, would miss out on any European competition unless they win the tournament. Their potential success would not impact the league-based allocation, as England already secured five Champions League slots based on continental performance.
English clubs are also alive in all three of UEFA’s tournaments. Arsenal face an uphill battle in the Champions League after losing 1-0 at home to Paris St-Germain, while Chelsea strengthened their position in the Conference League with a 4-1 away win at Djurgarden.
No nation has ever claimed all three European trophies in a single season, but that possibility remains – however slim – for England this term.
Premier League clubs enjoy significant financial advantages over most of their European counterparts. Liverpool boss Arne Slot pointed out that lower-table English teams operate with greater financial resources than even the top clubs in some other nations.
Football finance analyst Kieran Maguire attributes English success to these economic disparities, noting that the revenue of Premier League teams is multiple times higher than that of clubs in Spain, Germany, Italy, and France. This allows mid-tier English sides to secure high-caliber players and succeed in continental competition.
